The world was taken aback by the October 7 attack launched by Hamas on Israel, diverting attention away from other significant crises and wars, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. Recent developments suggest that the ramifications of Israel’s war against Gaza might extend beyond the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, potentially reaching the Strait of Hormuz. This situation not only disrupts maritime traffic in the region but also fuels concerns about further escalation of the conflict. However, it is crucial to consider the potential adverse consequences when contemplating international intervention in the Gaza conflict. Such intervention could have detrimental effects on international order and security. To shed light on this matter, this article examines the potential outcomes of international intervention in the Gaza conflict and explores different scenarios that may arise.
Background of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023
The war between Israel and Hamas, which began on October 7 last year, is one of the largest regional conflicts in the Middle East. This war, which started with Hamas’s attack on Israel through underground tunnels, continued with Israel’s response by air and ground. So far, this war has killed and injured thousands of people on both sides and taken several prisoners from Hamas. This war has also caused regional tensions between Israel and Arab and Islamic countries to increase.
Hamas surprise attack on Israel
Amid recent efforts by the United States to foster closer relations between Saudi Arabia, Israel, and some Arab countries in the region, an unexpected and large-scale assault by Hamas forces on Israel has brought new dynamics to the forefront. On the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, Hamas launched a staggering 5,000 rockets targeting Jewish settlements nearby and various areas in central Israel. Simultaneously, their forces infiltrated certain regions within Israel.
This recent intense battle in Gaza gained significant importance due to the fact that Hamas operates from a small coastal strip. Their actions have been carried out despite constant surveillance, espionage, and monitoring by Israel’s highly advanced military, security, and intelligence institutions. Hamas demonstrated exceptional sophistication in its planning and execution, successfully preventing any information leaks to Israel.
The incomparability of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7
The event of October 7, 2023, in Gaza is, from different angles, a rare and important event in the history of the Palestinian conflict. The Gaza Strip, as the starting point of this multi-layered and complex operation, is a small geographical area of 364 square kilometres, which is the most densely populated point in the world due to its population of 2.1 million people. In such a way that now, the operation of October 7 has become a surprising event and one of the biggest intelligence and military failures of Israel in the decades-long history of the Palestinian conflict. Israel’s current invasion of Gaza is carried out with two goals: firstly, to make Hamas threaten Israel militarily, and secondly, to prevent Hamas from playing the role of a political power in Gaza.
The reasons for the recent crisis in the Middle East
The recent crisis in the Middle East can be attributed to several factors that have escalated tensions in the region. The continuation of Israeli settlements, along with the imposition of pressure and deprivation on Palestinians, specifically those residing in the Gaza Strip, have played a significant role. The right-wing government of Netanyahu, characterised by its extremism, has been able to maintain its course largely due to the lack of international intervention. Moreover, Israel’s pursuit of influencing and fostering relations with influential Arab nations, notably Saudi Arabia, has influenced the rationale behind Hamas leaders’ decision to initiate war with Israel. Hamas saw Israel’s efforts to normalise relations with the Arab world, as demonstrated by the Abraham Accords, as a threat. Israel’s subsequent aspirations to establish ties with Saudi Arabia further solidified the urgency for Hamas to act.
Consequently, the immediate outcome of this war has been the suspension and silence surrounding ongoing normalisation negotiations. The opposition to Israel prevalent in the public consciousness will likely impede any immediate progress towards normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is clear that as long as this opposition prevails, the discussion surrounding this normalisation will remain stagnant.
Israel is trying to drag America into the Gaza conflict
Israel is trying to turn the current critical issue into a global issue to manage and contain the new conditions. Rumours that the current event and battle in Gaza is like September 11 for Israel and the region are a targeted attempt for the US to enter the scene of developments and deal with the front against Israel. Considering the priorities of the United States to contain China and Russia and NATO’s entanglement in the Ukraine war, the probability of its occurrence is very low. In addition, it seems that America and Europe, which have not been able to force the ruling right wing of Israel to pay the minimum costs of the peace process, see no reason to accompany it operationally and replace the priorities of their global strategy with the priorities of the right wing of Israel.
The possibility of the continuation of the war and the expansion of its scope
One of the upcoming scenarios is the continuation of the war until the destruction and defeat of one of the parties. In the framework of this scenario, the war is out of the bilateral mode between Hamas and Israel. It moves towards regional and international cooperation like the model of World War I and II. The increase of the parties involved in this war will certainly increase the level of destruction and human casualties for both sides terribly and may turn into an attrition and costly war for all involved countries by activating and intensifying long-standing rivalries and hostilities in the Middle East. The result of this new world war is the formation of a new peace agreement in favour of the dominant front and a fundamental change in the map and geopolitics of the Middle East.
Potential involvement of external actors in the Hamas-Israel conflict
Another possibility regarding the war between Hamas and Israel is that, like the model of the Ukrainian war, no country directly enters the war in support of the warring sides but secretly or openly provides financial, intelligence, military, and logistical support to one of the sides. This scenario is more likely to happen, but considering its impact on the erosion of war and increasing its costs, it is not a favourable option for regional and global powers, and efforts are being made to avoid it. The acceptance of peace plans presented by different countries, including the United States, Russia, and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, is also because these plans are usually only accepted by some of the parties due to their bias and need more implementation guarantees.
The possibility of the Gaza war spreading to regional and extra-regional forces
When examining the Hamas-Israel conflict from a purely military standpoint, it becomes evident that Hamas faced an inherent disadvantage the moment they initiated the war. Israel’s military capabilities far surpass those of Hamas, making it an uphill battle for the militant group. For Hamas to achieve success on its terms, there are only two feasible scenarios. Firstly, the conflict would need to expand and escalate on the northern and eastern fronts. Secondly, the involvement of Hezbollah or other Iranian proxy forces would be required to shift the balance significantly.
It is crucial to recognise that the United States, particularly under President Biden’s endorsement, has staunchly supported Israel throughout this conflict. Likewise, numerous governments in Europe and elsewhere have displayed a level of support for Israel in its actions. However, it is important to note that there has been widespread public outcry against Israel’s perceived violations of human rights in various parts of the world.
Thus, while Israel enjoys significant international backing from certain governments, there exists a noticeable public sentiment that condemns Israel’s actions in relation to human rights. This stark contrast between political support and public disapproval highlights the complexities surrounding the international response to the conflict.
The urgency of international intervention in the Gaza conflict
International intervention in the Gaza conflict has become imperative, not only to address the immediate humanitarian crisis but also to prevent further destabilisation and threats to international security. The conflict has the potential to draw in neighbouring countries, exacerbating existing tensions and triggering a wider regional conflict.
In conclusion, international intervention in the Gaza conflict is not only a moral imperative but also crucial for safeguarding international security. By addressing the immediate humanitarian crisis, facilitating dialogue, and promoting a peaceful resolution, the international community can contribute to the stability and well-being of the entire Middle East region.
