Recent disagreements in Scotland have cast doubt on the Scottish independence vote. Former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond expressed concerns about Scotland regressing politically, highlighting the SNP, now led by Humza Yousaf, for failing to articulate a clear strategy for independence. As 2024 begins, the SNP finds itself in a competitive position for Scotland’s top party, challenging in a manner unseen since its initial ascent to power in 2007. This article explores the recent divisions surrounding the Scottish independence vote, particularly following Humza Yousaf’s tenure, and analyses the intra-party tensions that could disrupt the path toward Scottish independence.
The erosion of the SNP’s independence process
In his New Year’s message, the Alba party leader highlighted that nearly a decade after the independence referendum, Scotland had endured what he termed a “decade of drift” under the SNP’s leadership. Alex Salmond, who resigned from the SNP in 2018, asserted that while the independence cause was initially championed under his leadership, it had since suffered a significant decline under his successors. He pointed out that the solid base of governmental competence, crucial for fostering support for independence, had significantly deteriorated. Salmond also criticized the SNP for abandoning efforts to articulate a clear and cohesive strategy for achieving independence.
Alba’s plan for the independence referendum
In the past few days, after increasing his criticism of the SNP, Salmond announced that he has an independent plan, which foresees how to advance the process of Scottish independence. Salmond unveiled Alba’s plans for the referendum bill at Holyrood. If passed, it would allow for a vote on extending the Scottish Parliament’s powers to legislate for independence. The plan, announced on St Andrew’s Day on Thursday, is to hold such a vote exactly ten years after the September 18 referendum in 2014. In the Scottish independence referendum held in 2014, most Scots voted to remain in the UK.
Alba’s ability to promote Scottish independence
Salmond believes he is more capable of pushing the idea of independence and that the SNP has failed to do so. Alex Salmond said his Alba party could “propel the independence movement forward” as it unveiled plans to table a referendum bill at Holyrood. Ash Regan, who recently defected from the SNP to Alba, is set to introduce a member’s bill in an attempt to force a referendum, asking Scots whether the powers of the Scottish Parliament should be extended to allow legislation and negotiate independence.
Scotland’s political regression in recent years
Salmond’s attacks on the SNP and the unveiling of Alba’s plan for the referendum came as he said: “In the aftermath of the independence referendum of a decade ago, few people would have predicted a Scotland moving politically backwards, not forwards. The transformational impact of the referendum galvanized an electorate into further positive votes for progressive change.” The 2014 referendum was held after the SNP, led by Salmond, won the most seats in the Scottish Parliament in the 2011 election. The former first minister said that if then-prime minister David Cameron had refused to allow a referendum, the current plan is “exactly the sort of initiative” he would have chosen.
Salmond seeks to seize the political initiative
Following the 2014 vote in which Scotland opted to remain in the UK, Salmond stepped down as leader of the SNP and First Minister of Scotland. Subsequently, in 2021, he established the Alba Party. Salmond declared that in the 2026 Holyrood election, Alba would provide a direct opportunity for voters to support independence and present a plan to the Scottish Parliament, aiming to reclaim the political initiative from Westminster. He expressed the intent to put an end to what he termed a decade of political stagnation. Despite the setback of the referendum and his resignation as prime minister in 2014, Salmond emphasized that this proposal could invigorate the independence movement, liberating it from its current state of inertia.
The unpopularity of Humza Yousaf among the voters
Many political experts believe Scotland’s current political situation is due to its first minister’s unpopularity. First Minister Humza Yousaf is “nothing like as popular” as Nicola Sturgeon, with voters and some independence supporters now switching from the SNP to Labour, said election expert Professor Sir John Curtice. Curtice said Sturgeon’s “fateful decision” in February 2023 to stand down as SNP leader and First Minister had “quite substantial political consequences” for her party. The SNP leadership race exposed intra-party divisions, and the Scottish public is now more likely to think the SNP is divided.
Conservative Prime Ministers oppose Scottish independence referendum
No prime minister in the UK has ever agreed with the independence of Scotland, and all of them have rejected the independence of Scotland from the UK and turned it into an independent country. While the SNP has won every Scottish election since 2014, Conservative prime ministers have rejected calls for another independence vote. Last year, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Government could not hold a second independence vote without Westminster’s approval. Still, Salmond, who formed Alba after leaving the SNP, said independence supporters may need to clarify that they are not ready to take ‘no’ for an answer.
Overall support for independence in Scotland
The overall level of support for the idea of independence among Scots has been increasing over the past decades, but in recent years, it has experienced declines and increases. Overall support for independence was 8 per cent in 1979, rose to 23 per cent in 1992, and then fluctuated around 30 per cent between 1997 and late 2013. It rose sharply to 45 per cent during the summer leading up to the 2014 referendum in September. It remains more than that, although it was also consistently above 50% during the 2020-2021 Covid-19 period. For most of this time, support among men was a few percentage points higher than among women, but this gender gap disappeared at the time of the referendum.
The uncertainty of the future of the Scottish independence movement
Scottish independence vote has been pushed to the sidelines recently because of the parties’ internal differences. When Nicola Sturgeon resigned as SNP leader and First Minister last March, the Scottish independence movement faced an uncertain future. The SNP’s popularity slowly declined. If the Conservatives form the next UK government, the rhetoric of Scottish independence will remain strong. On the other hand, Salmond is trying to confiscate the idea of Scottish independence, represented by the SNP, in favour of the Alba party, which he founded himself, and become the representative of the Scottish independence supporters.