Pro-European movements in Poland achieved a substantial vote share, marking a significant shift in the national elections held on Sunday, October 15. The Polish opposition successfully thwarted the Law and Justice Party (PiS) government’s continuation by securing ample seats. This election marks the first defeat for the right-wing Law and Justice party since 2015. Poland has, for eight years, posed a significant challenge to the EU’s attempts to revamp its immigration and asylum policies, often creating divisions over responsibilities for asylum seeker acceptance. This alteration in political power could herald substantial shifts in the relationship between Poland and the EU. The present article will explore the ramifications of pro-European movements’ victory in Poland on the EU’s future.
Definitive results of the 2023 Polish elections
Pro-European movements in Poland have been able to flourish in the parliamentary election. The definitive results of the Polish elections, as the initial estimates from the ballot boxes showed, will end the dominance of the far-right ruling party in the government. 74% of Polish people participated in this election. According to the final results of the election, which is a record of its kind with the participation of 74.4% of the Polish people, the right-wing Christian Democratic Party Law and Justice is still the largest party in the parliament with 35.4% of the votes (equivalent to 194 seats).
A coalition of parties to defeat the extreme right party
The Civic Coalition secured 30.7% of the vote, resulting in 157 seats, while the moderate right-wing Third Way gained 14.4% (65 seats). The left-leaning faction acquired 8.6% (26 seats), and the far-right Confederation obtained 7.2% (18 seats). Led by former Prime Minister and ex-European Council President Donald Tusk, the Civic Coalition, alongside the Third Way and the Left, totalling 248 seats, pledged to forge a coalition government, aiming to replace the far-right Law and Justice party. This parliament consists of 460 members, with opposition parties also clinching 66 seats in the Senate. The Law and Justice party secured only 34 seats, marking a decrease of 10 from the previous period.
Observation of Polish elections by other countries
Following a tumultuous campaign in the deeply divided nation, Poland’s recent parliamentary elections garnered significant attention abroad, notably in Russia and Ukraine. Many Poles viewed this vote as the most pivotal since the rejection of communism in the country’s initial semi-free elections in 1989. Notably, the voter turnout hit a striking 74%, marking the highest participation in Poland’s elections since the collapse of communist rule.
The high importance of Poland for the EU
Poland is rapidly becoming an economic and military power. Since joining the EU in 2004, Poland’s economy has expanded faster than most EU member states, making it the sixth-largest economy in the EU with one of the lowest unemployment rates. The country has also become a significant technology hub: Intel announced it would invest $4.6 billion in a chip factory near Wroclaw this year. In 2022, Google announced that it will strengthen its presence in Warsaw with an investment of 700 million dollars, double the previous year, and is looking to expand in the country.
Poland is one of the critical NATO military bases.
Unlike many Western European countries, Poland has used its prosperity to invest in defence. Poland currently spends more than two per cent of NATO’s GDP requirement (a commitment that only 11 NATO members meet) on defence, and defence spending is expected to rise. This year, these expenses reached four per cent. The government has invested in modern advanced military equipment, including US-made missile defence systems, Abrams tanks, and F-35 fighter jets, and is looking to become one of NATO’s major military bases.
The extreme right party’s insistence on continuing its policies
Stéphane Séjourné, head of Renew Europe, a liberal pro-European parliamentary bloc, remarked, “We’re witnessing Poland’s democratic renaissance.” In response, Jarosław Kaczyński, the far-right Polish leader who fell short of his goal to establish a third government, labelled Donald Tusk, a figure aligned with Berlin and Brussels, as a puppet. Kaczyński vowed his party’s perseverance in the political arena, emphasizing a staunch commitment to an assertive anti-immigration stance.
Disappointment of European far-rights with Polish election results
The defeat of the populists and the extreme right was another great achievement of this election for Poland and Europe. Europe is facing the threat of extreme right wave and populism more than its peace, and this vote of the Polish people was a salve for the wounds of the EU. The results of the recent Polish elections indicate a political change in Poland and a change of mood in Europe. Europe’s turn to right-wing parties seems irreversible, less than a few months ago. In a situation where the war in Ukraine has moved the centre of gravity of the EU to the East, the return of Poland to the mainstream of Europe is very important.
Massive political change in Polish political processes
The ascent of the liberal opposition signifies a monumental political transition in Poland, countering the ultra-nationalistic Catholic ideology championed by the Law and Justice Party (PiS). This change marks a significant shift in Warsaw’s relationship with Brussels since PiS assumed power in 2015. The EU stands on the brink of encountering a more conciliatory, optimistic, and compromise-oriented partner. Donald Tusk, 66, addressing an exuberant crowd in Warsaw that resembled a triumphant rally, declared, “Poland has triumphed, democracy has triumphed. This marks the conclusion of dark times and the PiS government’s end.”
Poland: the future leader of the EU?
Poland has actively and significantly contributed to the conflict in Ukraine, earning recognition as a crucial supporter of the nation. This positioning has favoured it as a significant player in Europe’s future. With a new government aligned with the EU, Poland aspires to carve out a prominent role as the leader of Eastern Europe within the EU and potentially NATO. As tensions and divergences in managing the Union persist among Paris, Berlin, and Brussels, revealing a leadership vacuum in Europe, Poland and Tusk aims to leverage these disagreements to enhance their country’s standing and potentially assume leadership within the EU.
Ensuring the survival of the EU with the recent Polish elections
Pro-European movements in Poland can be a guarantee for the survival of the EU. After eight years of far-right policies that have fueled frequent street protests and exacerbated national divisions, Polish voters have expressed deep dissatisfaction with the PiS. The recent elections in Poland can be called the return of Poland to the mainstream of Europe, and this event can undoubtedly guarantee the future of the EU. Donald Tusk’s victory not only makes Europe’s turn to far-right policies irreversible, but it could lead to the political isolation of right-wingers in other member states.
