The British were divided over Brexit, with England and Wales voting to leave the EU and Northern Ireland and Scotland wanting the UK to remain in the EU. Two years have passed since the final withdrawal of the UK from the EU, and the dissatisfaction of the Scots has increased daily. It should be checked whether the Scotland economy after Brexit has grown or declined compared to the past? Also, what are the predictions about the economic future of Scotland?
Ignoring Scotland’s Brexit demands
The Scotland economy after Brexit has faced many challenges. Contrary to “Better Together” promises that Scotland is an “equal partner” in the UK, Scotland’s demands have been entirely ignored by Westminster. People, businesses and communities are now paying a heavy price for a Brexit they never voted for, which was imposed on them by the UK government.
A decrease in goods trade after Brexit
Due to reduced trade interactions, Scotland’s economy declined after Brexit. A few months after the Brexit vote in 2016, Conservative MP and former Brexit Secretary David Davis said: “There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside.” Analysis by the Center for European Reform (CER) shows that Brexit has reduced UK’s goods trade by 15.7%, or £12.6 billion, in just one month, October 2021.
Brexit threats to businesses
New layers of bureaucracy and delays at borders will increase costs for many businesses exporting to Europe and threaten their jobs and livelihoods. Scottish Government modelling shows that Scotland will be disproportionately affected by Brexit, with Scottish GDP expected to be £9bn lower, or 6%, by 2030. Surveys show that the Scotland economy after Brexit has declined, and Scotland has suffered an economic recession.
The economic impact is worse than Covid-19
Scotland economy after Brexit was hit harder than during the Covid-19 outbreak. Numerous studies have estimated that Brexit will permanently damage UK GDP, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) recently stating that the economic impact of Brexit is twice that of Covid-19. Brexiteers promised an extra £350m a week, but the reality of this Tory Brexit means the economy costs around £800m a week.
Scotland’s farms in danger of destruction
Brexit, combined with the UK government’s hostile immigration policy, has left many businesses struggling to find essential staff. This means rotting fruit and vegetables in the fields as the farms struggle to find workers. It means there are not enough vets for animal welfare in rural Scottish communities. It has led to higher food prices and fuel shortages due to a need for more truck drivers. The Conservative’s temporary visa plan does nothing to address this problem adequately.
Scottish compensation request from the British Government
During Boris Johnson’s term, the Scottish National Party (SNP) officially asked the PM of the UK to pay billions of pounds in compensation and damages to Scotland for Brexit costs. Scottish nationalists believe that the Brexit trade deal will cost the country’s economy billions of pounds and that the London government should compensate for these losses.
Challenges for Scotland’s fishing industry after Brexit
Following the implementation of the Brexit agreement between the UK and the EU, many Scottish fishermen have stopped exporting to EU markets. Many British fishermen have accused the Johnson government of treason. The Scottish National Party, which wants the country to be independent of the UK and is seeking a second independence referendum, has said that the country’s fishing industry faces many challenges due to Brexit.
The dire economic outlook for the UK
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned a few days ago that the UK economy would shrink by 0.6% in 2023, compared to the 0.3% growth it recorded last October. In its latest global economic outlook update, the IMF raised its growth outlook for the global economy but warned that the UK looks set to suffer more from rising inflation and higher interest rates.
Falling living standards in Scotland
“Let’s be clear, taken together 2022 and 2023 are expected to be the worst years for living standards since the 1930s, and the economy is expected to perform worse than sanction hit Russia,” Stephen Flynn, the SNP Westminster leader, said at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday. “So while the Brexit ship sinks with the Prime Minister and the opposition leader at the helm, does he blame those Scots who want to jump aboard the independence lifeboat?”
Rishi Sunak’s projection on economic problems
Rishi Sunak replied, “The number one factor impacting people’s living standards is inflation caused by high energy prices due to a war in Ukraine. It’s got nothing to do with Brexit, and that’s why the Government is taking significant action supporting every family with £900 this winter, but what I would say to him is rather than obsess about constitutional arrangements, focus on delivering for the people of Scotland, that’s what we will do.” Prime Minister Rishi Sunak insisted that falling living standards had “nothing to do with Brexit “.
11% increase in homelessness in Scotland
Homelessness in Scotland is set to rise by 11% in 2022, the media reported on Tuesday, writing that the number of homeless people in Scotland has reached an all-time high. Scotland experienced a new record number of homeless people in September 2022, with 28,944 homeless people, the highest number since 2002. The latest data also shows that 19% of Scottish renters became homeless between April and September 2022, an increase of 14%. The number of children living in temporary accommodation has also increased by 10% to 9130 people compared to the previous year.
Brexit’s long-term damage to Scotland’s economy
The Conservatives must apologize to Scottish businesses and pay compensation for the long-term damage to the Scotland economy after Brexit. Brexit will cost Scottish business and economic growth billions of pounds. Brexit was an unnecessary act of economic sabotage launched against the will of the Scots. The UK government must now approve an immediate financial compensation package for Scotland.
