- It seems that EU members will not be enthusiastic in defending Scottish independence.
- London is seeking to put diplomatic pressure on Edinburg.
- The best plan for the SNP to seek independence is to wait for a new government in London.
Scotland and Independence
Brexit, one of the most important events of the last few years in the European Union, has brought the independence tendencies of Scottish nationalists to the fore.
The implementation of Brexit in 2021 complicated the fate of countries in the UK, creating a big gap in all policies and especially in foreign affairs.
Scotland, however, has a different situation. Its people voiced their opposition to Brexit in the 2016 referendum, and they have been against the implementation of the decision.
Brexit has proved to be an important issue for everyone. Powers previously given to the devolved countries in the UK are too limited to cover all issues and the right to play an independent role in international affairs has become one of the most important new issues, requiring further thought.
What is Scotland’s Demand?
Scotland’s main problem in Brexit was that it ignored the will of its citizens. They believe that it is time for Edinburgh to make independent decisions about its future and act as an independent player.
This has provided a golden opportunity for the country’s nationalists to make their dream of independence a reality.
The idea of Scottish independence was defeated in the 2014 referendum with 55% voting against leave. But statistics show that the situation is different this time.
According to statistics, 68% of Scotts agree with the independence of their country from the UK. This has given Sturgeon the opportunity to pursue the idea of independence with greater vigour and boldness. But London does not seem to agree with the idea.
London’s Position on Scottish Independence
London’s main reason for opposing the Scottish independence referendum is the rule of “one referendum opportunity” for every generation.
Boris Johnson believes that every generation has only one opportunity to hold a referendum. An opportunity was given to this generation in 2014 and it will not be repeated for another thirty years.
But Brexit changed the situation. The problem is that the UK withdrawal from the EU was implemented at the worst possible time.
The Covid-19 pandemic and, of course, the poor economic situation throughout the UK, have made the implementation of Brexit more difficult than ever.
The Scottish people are well aware that withdrawal from the EU means a cut in EU funding, an issue which is to the detriment of their country’s economy.
This is why they want to stay in the EU. A wish that can only be fulfilled through independence.
It seems that Sturgeon has a hard, long journey to reach independence from the UK.
SNP Strategy for Independence
Many experts believe that the May 2021 elections can be considered an informal referendum. The higher the SNP vote, the stronger the popular support for independence.
Sturgeon is an intelligent politician. She knows that following the path of independence, even the Irish way by holding a unilateral referendum, will have negative consequences.
If London continues to oppose the referendum and Sturgeon holds unilateral Brexit under the authority of the local parliament, then it must wait for unpleasant events.
The fact is that many SNP supporters do not necessarily agree with Scottish independence. For this reason, holding a unilateral referendum could be hindered by internal forces in the country.
Another possible plan for the Sturgeon government is to wait for the next government in London as the Labour Party has a much softer stance towards the independence referendum should it come to power.
The Labour Party has taken a softer approach to Scottish independence, and its leaders believe it can be allowed to hold a referendum if the SNP wins an acceptable vote in the next election.
Alternatively, Sturgeon could have more legal authority in international affairs in consultation with London, and could become a member of the EU even without full independence.
Sturgeon appears to be seeking pressure on London through international public opinion and political pressure from the EU.
How is the Current Situation with EU Countries?
Given the facts, the idea, nevertheless does not seem to be very successful and implemental. Let’s take a look at the reasons.
The UK is currently a permanent member of the UN Security Council. It is a member of the Group of Eight and NATO. It is also a member of the G20 group. The political weight of the UK in the EU is also significant.
Even in the face of unfavourable economic conditions, Britain is still the most important power in Europe.
For this reason, it seems unlikely that EU members would be willing to pit themselves against the UK for the sake of Scotland. Many EU member states want to revise EU rules and regulations in admitting new members.
On the other hand, Scotland’s membership in the EU and its separation from the UK will have undeniable consequences for Europe.
The Stance of EU Member States on Scottish Independence
European countries are well aware that this issue can provoke nationalist feelings and independence movements in their own countries. They consider the situation as a potential harmful matter for their national interests.
Presently, Spain does not agree with Scotland’s membership as an independent country due to its own situation in the Catalan and Basque regions.
The same is true of the UK, which is wary of inciting separatists in Wales and Northern Ireland.
Denmark is reluctant to support Scotland’s EU membership, due to fears for its Faroe Islands, France due to fears of separatists in Corsica and Belgium due to fears of escalating separatist movements in Flanders and Wallonia.
Germany seems to be the only power which will support Scotland in the EU. The alternative that EU members are considering and proposing for the current situation in Scotland is cooperating within the EU-UK Cooperation Council.
The Australian-EU relationship model is another suggestion for Scotland.
The long road to Scottish independence and membership in the EU seems far more complex than previously thought and requires context beyond mere popular support.
Contrary to popular belief, the Scottish Government needs more options to pursue the right to secede from the KU and rejoin the EU.
The current situation in EU member states and the fear of separatist groups in their own countries, coupled with their relations with Scotland’s powerful rival, London, have made the conditions for independence more difficult.
London seems to be open to imposing severe restrictions on Scotland and pressuring its government. Boris Johnson seems set to use all its power to defeat the idea of independence.